Wars end not when the loser is defeated, but rather when the loser is humiliated. Throughout history, losers have fought on until they lack the manpower to fill their depleted ranks. Typically that occurs after 30% of military-age men are dead, as in France during the Napoleonic Wars, the South in the American Civil War, or Germany in the Second World War. The losing side will not abandon hostilities until all those who want to fight to the death have had the opportunity to do so — unless it is humiliated before the physical exhaustion of its resources has run its course.
Analyzing irrational impulses in the context of real-world events is an inherently contradictory exercise. Paranoid schizophrenics may act with great rationality in the service of an irrational delusion. Distinguishing an irrational impulse from the rational means placed at its service requires highly subjective judgments. When an irrational impulse is combined with irrational leadership, for example, Adolf Hitler’s personal conduct of the war in the Eastern Front we encounter yet another order of complexity.
There is no simple common characterization that applies to all the wars of demographic exhaustion, but there surely are common elements to be found in all or most of them. These include the belief that the alternative to pursuing the war would be national ruin, as well as the belief of ordinary soldiers that the war will lead to their social and economic advancement.
What we know of these wars challenges the usual way in which we think about rationality in politics. With hindsight, the decision to initiate and continue hostilities on this scale seems an act of madness. In most cases, moreover, the greatest number of casualties occurred after hope of ultimate victory had diminished or disappeared. The principal actors, to be sure, evinced a certain kind of rationality, albeit of a perverse order: They believed that failure to fight and win would undermine their national raison d’etre. In fact, their fear of national decline was not entirely misplaced.
The belief among combatants in wars of exhaustion that nothing less than national survival was at stake was not wholly irrational, although in some cases the cause of national decline appears more psychological than objective.
Nations do not fight to the death, but they frequently fight until their pool of prospective fighters has reached a point of practical exhaustion. In most cases, this involves reaching the 30% mark where casualties are concerned.
Replies
Mr. Gonzales, how much weight would you ascribe the idea of demographic fatigue relative to rapid growth in the number of steel bands, and calypso tents, in the light of evidence of comparative rapidly rising death rates?
Although I am referring specifically to Pan, there is no reason why the hypothesis cannot be extended to Kaiso, especially as it relates to, "When a major new threat arises, economic, medical or social, governments of these developing societies often cannot cope. Problems routinely managed in industrial societies become full-scale crises in many developing ones.".
Mr. Providence: I would ascribe about 25% weight to the idea of demographic fatigue relative to rapid growth in the number of steel bands, and calypso tents, in the light of evidence of comparative rapidly rising death rates?
Now, I need to inform you that I like to look at most of life through a POLITICAL LENS. So I would ascribe the remaining 75% to POLITICS. Well, I should break down that 75% between POLITICS and ECONOMICS (though not equally). But as Hillary Clinton famously said: What difference does it make -- anyway?
I also need to inform you that I AM A CALYPSO LOVER. Not TOO BIG on the PAN TING. Although I have spent a lot of TIME and MONEY supporting PAN. And I would also like to be involved with the COMMERCIAL ASPECTS of the music if PAN TRINBAGO ever leaves the TADPOLE STAGE. I think that PAN MUSIC could sell if done right and if marketed right. And that possibility attracts me to this forum hoping that I might find the RIGHT HOOK UP one day. But that is a long story.
As I see it, PAN TRINBAGO and TUCO are PNM GOVERNMENT VOTING BLOCKS being paid indirectly for their votes under the guise of CULTURE. The beneficiaries (fully knowing the power of their role) chose to corrupt it for personal financial gain and so we have what we have today. The percentage I give to ECONOMICS is only raising its dissension-filled head today because MONEY EH RUNNING.
Now, the next thing I need to inform you of is that (looking through another LENS) a gross lack of ADMINISTRATIVE SKILLS across the board could be 90% responsible for all the STAGNANCY. I sit here sometimes and shake my head that TWO SUCCESSIVE MINISTERS OF CULTURE (two of the most highly educated TRINIS anywhere in the world -- Lincoln Douglas and DOCTOR DOLLY with plenty stacks of paper) could be SO LACKING in ADMINISTRATIVE SKILLS.
"PROBLEMS ROUTINELY MANAGED"
That is where you and I live in different worlds. In my view, THE NCC and PAN TRINBAGO and TUCO don't think that they have any kind of a PROBLEM TO MANAGE. Once PAN TRINBAGO and TUCO get their subventions, preparations begin for the GRAND CARNIVAL. After the CARNIVAL Doctor Dolly meets the PRESS and tell them that we had a VERY SUCCESSFUL CARNIVAL ... almost 40,000 visitors came to the island to witness the world's greatest carnival and BILLIONS of dollars changed hands, stimulating the economy. WHAT FULL-SCALE CRISIS?
I could continue with this response!!! But right now I have to stay with my trend of thought and go sing some praises to the GREATEST POLITICIAN IN THE WHOLE WIDE WORLD!!!
odw: Read these two articles!!!
http://www.trinidadexpress.com/20170302/editorial/saving-calypso-fr...
http://www.guardian.co.tt/carnival/2013-02-06/are-calypso-tents-dyi...
Thanks! Much appreciated.
Brother Valentino - Where Kaiso Went
"There is also said to be a lack of finance to carry out the necessary functions to make Carnival 2018 successful. No interest group has received any funding to date.
But Minister Dr Nyan Gadbsy-Dolly says despite the absence of an NCC board, which she hopes to install in two weeks, plans for Carnival 2018 have been ongoing and the new board will not have to start at zero."
If the GOVERNMENT is borrowing money to pay the SALARIES of GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEES -- then it is very likely that they are BORROWING MONEY to the FUND THE CARNIVAL GROUPS!!!
Please give them some time to straighten out the LOANS -- do fret, everybody go get!!!
Allyuh forget that CALYPSO TENTS used to be INDEPENDENT BUSINESSES. Well ah know allyuh doh want to hear the story about how they end up CAP IN HAND WORKING FOR THE GUVVY DOLLAR!!!
So when these groups will turn a profit so that the next year they will at lease have some start up money? every year they start from scratch, now they want to bully the government. All those groups have a beggar mentality, they depend on other peoples money. Who don't show a profit shut them down.
Many developing countries that have experienced rapid population growth for several decades are showing signs of demographic fatigue. These countries are struggling to provide for their swelling ranks with the simultaneous challenges associated with providing for burgeoning populations. When a major new threat arises, economic, medical or social, governments of these developing societies often cannot cope. Problems routinely managed in industrial societies become full-scale crises in many developing ones. As a result, some developing countries with rapidly growing populations may be headed for population stability, not because of falling birth rates, but because of rapidly rising death rates.
Can the factor of humiliation be considered with the following Facebook post by this steel band stalwart today?
Don't tell me that THE HIGHLY HONOURED MILTON WIRE AUSTIN is calling out DOCTOR DOLLY (She is the MINISTER OF CULTURE, isn't she?).
FOOD FOR THOUGHT for CECIL and ODW!!! Nah!!! Dem fellahs eh never moving from their POLITICAL LOYALTY!!!
Claude, others may view the situation from a different angle and take the initiative towards finding solutions with an understanding of how the process works. I doubt the government is trying to humiliate Pan Trinbago.
TUCO seeks corporate help
Trinbago Unified Calypsonians’ Organisation (TUCO) president Lutalo Masimba, aka Brother Resistance, says the organisation is seeking partnership with corporate TT to have more independence from government allocations.
He was speaking with Sunday Newsday yesterday at the Queen’s Park Savannah, Port of Spain during a TUCO event to discuss a medical plan for its members.
Masimba said TUCO has not heard anything about the government allocation as yet and that would fall under the National Carnival Commission (NCC) and the government.
“We hope that they would understand that Carnival is now.”
He said the board of the NCC was recently installed and that would be a major keep back.
“So we have to work with the NCC with that understanding that things now come in place and so the board would need to get a feel of where they are and get things in place for moving forward.”
He said they are always hopeful of a good allocation but they do not depend on it in spite of what people may say. “We have always been trying to establish new relationships especially out in the corporate world, in the finance world, and to begin to move our product into a more public/private sector partnership. We think that is important. We don’t feel comfortable waiting on the government to see what the government give we (sic).”
He said TUCO has always been making moves to establish new situations where they could embrace relationships with the corporate and financial sectors to take their product to another space. Masimba said he believes government funding should be specifically for developmental purposes and growing the industry but for commercial events they need to find a way to make them “speak for us.”
He said the outlook for this looks fairly good and TUCO will be making some announcements fairly soon.
“When we roll out what we doing for Carnival 2018 we want to show that in these critical times when dependence on the Treasury is not a major thing for us we want to demonstrate in no uncertain terms that we have been making some moves to establish a sense of independence as we good forward.
http://newsday.co.tt/2017/12/10/tuco-seeks-corporate-help/
MASIMBA talk SO MUCH NONSENSE in this article it eh even worth my time to point out the NONSENSE!!! They GAMBLED CALYPSO on the dream of GOVERNMENT GIMME GIMME HANDOUTS in perpetuity.
Well, THE WELL RUN DRY!!!
He said this: "The board of the NCC was recently installed and that would be a major keep back."
Go back and read DOLLY'S comment when she belatedly put the NEW NCC BOARD in place!!! Quite the opposite!!!
-
1
-
2
of 2 Next